Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux.

The prevalence and intensity of marine heatwaves is increasing globally, disrupting local environmental conditions. The individual and population-level impacts of prolonged heatwaves on marine species have recently been demonstrated, yet whole-ecosystem consequences remain unexplored. We leveraged time series abundance data of 361 taxa, grouped into 86 functional groups, from six long-term surveys, diet information from a new diet database, and previous modeling efforts, to build two food web networks using an extension of the popular Ecopath ecosystem modeling framework, Ecotran. We compare ecosystem models parameterized before and after the onset of recent marine heatwaves to evaluate the cascading effects on ecosystem structure and function in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. While the ecosystem-level contribution (prey) and demand (predators) of most functional groups changed following the heatwaves, gelatinous taxa experienced the largest transformations, underscored by the arrival of northward-expanding pyrosomes. We show altered trophic relationships and energy flux have potentially profound consequences for ecosystem structure and function, and raise concerns for populations of threatened and harvested species.

An updated end-to-end ecosystem model of the Northern California Current reflecting ecosystem changes due to recent marine heatwaves.

The Northern California Current is a highly productive marine upwelling ecosystem that is economically and ecologically important. It is home to both commercially harvested species and those that are federally listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Recently, there has been a global shift from single-species fisheries management to ecosystem-based fisheries management, which acknowledges that more complex dynamics can reverberate through a food web. Here, we have integrated new research into an end-to-end ecosystem model (i.e., physics to fisheries) using data from long-term ocean surveys, phytoplankton satellite imagery paired with a vertically generalized production model, a recently assembled diet database, fishery catch information, species distribution models, and existing literature. This spatially-explicit model includes 90 living and detrital functional groups ranging from phytoplankton, krill, and forage fish to salmon, seabirds, and marine mammals, and nine fisheries that occur off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. This model was updated from previous regional models to account for more recent changes in the Northern California Current (e.g., increases in market squid and some gelatinous zooplankton such as pyrosomes and salps), to expand the previous domain to increase the spatial resolution, to include data from previously unincorporated surveys, and to add improved characterization of endangered species, such as Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca). Our model is mass-balanced, ecologically plausible, without extinctions, and stable over 150-year simulations. Ammonium and nitrate availability, total primary production rates, and model-derived phytoplankton time series are within realistic ranges. As we move towards holistic ecosystem-based fisheries management, we must continue to openly and collaboratively integrate our disparate datasets and collective knowledge to solve the intricate problems we face. As a tool for future research, we provide the data and code to use our ecosystem model.

Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

Unclear associations between small pelagic fish and jellyfish in several major marine ecosystems.

During the last 20 years, a series of studies has suggested trends of increasing jellyfish (Cnidaria and Ctenophora) biomass in several major ecosystems worldwide. Some of these systems have been heavily fished, causing a decline among their historically dominant small pelagic fish stocks, or have experienced environmental shifts favouring jellyfish proliferation. Apparent reduction in fish abundance alongside increasing jellyfish abundance has led to hypotheses suggesting that jellyfish in these areas could be replacing small planktivorous fish through resource competition and/or through predation on early life stages of fish. In this study, we test these hypotheses using extended and published data of jellyfish, small pelagic fish and crustacean zooplankton biomass from four major ecosystems within the period of 1960 to 2014: the Southeastern Bering Sea, the Black Sea, the Northern California Current and the Northern Benguela. Except for a negative association between jellyfish and crustacean zooplankton in the Black Sea, we found no evidence of jellyfish biomass being related to the biomass of small pelagic fish nor to a common crustacean zooplankton resource. Calculations of the energy requirements of small pelagic fish and jellyfish stocks in the most recent years suggest that fish predation on crustacean zooplankton is 2-30 times higher than jellyfish predation, depending on ecosystem. However, compared with available historical data in the Southeastern Bering Sea and the Black Sea, it is evident that jellyfish have increased their share of the common resource, and that jellyfish can account for up to 30% of the combined fish-jellyfish energy consumption. We conclude that the best available time-series data do not suggest that jellyfish are outcompeting, or have replaced, small pelagic fish on a regional scale in any of the four investigated ecosystems. However, further clarification of the role of jellyfish requires higher-resolution spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling of the pelagic community.